About this UNOFFICIAL BLOG on Martin Armstrong's writings

This is my attempt to provide a simplified approach to Mr. Armstrong's writings, essays and etc, current and past. I do this without any intention of controversy or judgement of his works. I do not know Mr.Armstrong, and say of him as as Will Rogers once did: "All I know is what I read in the papers...." which in this case are the works of Mr. Armstrong in the public domain.

Monday, July 4, 2011

"The Great Silver Crash of 2011?"

Note that at "Armstrong Economics" site at the dot com of the same name this article was called "The Great Silver Crash of 2015 ?" and so I picked it for analysis but yet it was about 2011.  OK, so I stuck with it, and here is what I am able to take from it, in its simplest form.
1.  The 2011 "Crash" was in like with ".....the usual 11 year high.".  I cannot relate that to any published data.

More he says:  "This has come also on a Pi cycle from the October 2008 low (31.4).".  Again I find it difficult to relate this to any public data.

2.   His estimation of major support he defines as follows: "The primary support to what lies at $23.50 - $26.50 range."  I take that to mean he thinks primary and last ditch support for Silver lies at 23-26.50 and he is using US Dollars as he currency.
     He then says that a MONTHLY closing below that range would signal a "Serious" change in trend for the near term.

3.  Closing BELOW U$D 28.00 on a YEARLY Basis will SIGNAL a decline into 2012.

THEN he offers TWO possible scenario's:
  A/  SCENARIO #1:   We have a spike low on (or about( my idea)) his projected Jun 13/14th bottom, (which was CLOSE but not an exact hit) which would set up an Odds-ON possible scenario for SILVER TO EXCEED ITS PREVIOUS 1980 high, a $54.00 PEAK BY 2013.(Smart guy that he is, he did not say when in 2013).

    Note in this scenario he DID NOT set a peak value on how far up Silver may be able to go, so we are left to guess its potential value, a concept that is very challenging and controversial to say the least.  NOW THIS IS MY INTERPRETATION, and NOT necessarily Martin Amstrong's opinion.  THEREFORE WHEN THIS HAPPENS, A POTENTIAL RANGE SHIFT (upward) can happen.

  B/  SCENARIO #2:  This views the possibility that the low achieved after this past peak, extends out to his next turnpoint,    2013.6.

Martin Armstrong did observe that the harder the come-down from a peak, the shorter the duration it takes to bottom out and resume a trend.

Note that he leaves a question mark at the end of his essay title.  He, as I, is very skeptical of official regulation of markets, and he feels that silver is easily a very heavily manipulated commodity.

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