Note that at "Armstrong Economics" site at the dot com of the same name this article was called "The Great Silver Crash of 2015 ?" and so I picked it for analysis but yet it was about 2011. OK, so I stuck with it, and here is what I am able to take from it, in its simplest form.
1. The 2011 "Crash" was in like with ".....the usual 11 year high.". I cannot relate that to any published data.
More he says: "This has come also on a Pi cycle from the October 2008 low (31.4).". Again I find it difficult to relate this to any public data.
2. His estimation of major support he defines as follows: "The primary support to what lies at $23.50 - $26.50 range." I take that to mean he thinks primary and last ditch support for Silver lies at 23-26.50 and he is using US Dollars as he currency.
He then says that a MONTHLY closing below that range would signal a "Serious" change in trend for the near term.
3. Closing BELOW U$D 28.00 on a YEARLY Basis will SIGNAL a decline into 2012.
THEN he offers TWO possible scenario's:
A/ SCENARIO #1: We have a spike low on (or about( my idea)) his projected Jun 13/14th bottom, (which was CLOSE but not an exact hit) which would set up an Odds-ON possible scenario for SILVER TO EXCEED ITS PREVIOUS 1980 high, a $54.00 PEAK BY 2013.(Smart guy that he is, he did not say when in 2013).
Note in this scenario he DID NOT set a peak value on how far up Silver may be able to go, so we are left to guess its potential value, a concept that is very challenging and controversial to say the least. NOW THIS IS MY INTERPRETATION, and NOT necessarily Martin Amstrong's opinion. THEREFORE WHEN THIS HAPPENS, A POTENTIAL RANGE SHIFT (upward) can happen.
B/ SCENARIO #2: This views the possibility that the low achieved after this past peak, extends out to his next turnpoint, 2013.6.
Martin Armstrong did observe that the harder the come-down from a peak, the shorter the duration it takes to bottom out and resume a trend.
Note that he leaves a question mark at the end of his essay title. He, as I, is very skeptical of official regulation of markets, and he feels that silver is easily a very heavily manipulated commodity.
About this UNOFFICIAL BLOG on Martin Armstrong's writings
This is my attempt to provide a simplified approach to Mr. Armstrong's writings, essays and etc, current and past. I do this without any intention of controversy or judgement of his works. I do not know Mr.Armstrong, and say of him as as Will Rogers once did: "All I know is what I read in the papers...." which in this case are the works of Mr. Armstrong in the public domain.
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