About this UNOFFICIAL BLOG on Martin Armstrong's writings

This is my attempt to provide a simplified approach to Mr. Armstrong's writings, essays and etc, current and past. I do this without any intention of controversy or judgement of his works. I do not know Mr.Armstrong, and say of him as as Will Rogers once did: "All I know is what I read in the papers...." which in this case are the works of Mr. Armstrong in the public domain.

Monday, March 19, 2012

the actual 4 points supposed to be in the last post

in this article published today, what I got from it were these four points MA advocates would be like those Caesar implemented in the Roman Debt Crises of his time:

 1/  Reduce mortgages for "Distressed Homeowners"  "under water" by about 1/3 to 1/4 to provide relief but yet not bankrupt lenders.

 2/ Reduce Consumer Credit interest rates by re-instituting USERY Laws, cap them off at 9%.

 3/  Restrict Banks to BANKING.  No trading, no associated business, by passing a strict Glass-Steagall LAW

 4/  Move from Direct taxation, by eliminating IRS and moving to a National Sale Tax, not a VAT.

Debt Crises ala Julius Caesar Mar 18, pub today, mar 19

  please feel free to read this yourself.  Lots of good history, and great sculpture and coin pix.


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Monday, August 22, 2011

So far in August, Martin Armstrong has posted 75 pages of PDF format

and what of it ?

  The most recent PDF is 32 pages on the Euro..   Simply, the Euro won't work, until the King puts Humpty Dumpty back together again, so that Euro-Bonds may be issued as a counter-part to the Euro-currency.
Debt denominated in the currency of the trading unit.  Costing the issuers, proportionate to their credit-worthiness within the trading unit (EU).  Failing that, he says, the Euro will falter like a palsied walker trying to cross a main traffic intersection.

Next newest is the article about US Treasury Bonds heading to new lows while gold heads to new all time highs.  MA's emphasis was that the bonds of debtor countries like Greece would become the "Virtual Currencies" of those countries within the Euro Union, as they have.  Now instead of speculating against the Greek Drachma, the debt of any country becomes its "Virtual Currency".

On Aug 16, he published 5 pages on "Big Money & Depressions" in which he made a good case for the USA being very able to carry their debt without incident due to its moderate GDP to Debt ratio.
So many people enjoy loathing the USA, IMO, it blinds them to the fact of the countries overall variety and productivity of goods and services used both domestically and globally and lightens up the gloom and doom projected by so many.

On the 15the  he published 3 pages which stared off being about the 40th year Anniversary of Floating Rates.
In this or another recent PDF he made it clear that money was simply a convience evolved from barter, and that it was normal for the prices of EVERYTHING to fluctuate with supply and demand for that item,, including currency, be it paper dollars or gold / silver ounces.  During this and previous months he laid out a good case for the value of gold not as a gold standard with fixed values but as a quantitative constant in which the demand for that item ( gold or silver) being determined using floating rates in order to make sure that large amounts of the metals were not artifically removed from countries using it as a reserve asset, by artifically low pricing.

  In the article "Foundation Stones", he discusses the reality that DEBT is the issue because Govts have come to be uncontrollable issuers and regardless of the intent of the issue, the record is that Govts do not ever pay back their borrowings.  He goes on to discuss the shortcomings of the way leadership organizes itself and how human nature expresses itself through attempts to guarantee profits through manpulations and such.  I write here to share relevant information to help you be effective in markets and while I in no way disagree with Mr. Armstrong ( I sympathize strongly as a matter of fact), its not helpful to my purpose here to go any deeper than this.

I have just scratched the surface here, and I do include some of his information when composing my tactical operations outlook for the short and medium term.  I do include the results of this in my publications PEAK PERFORMANCE PICKS and AGGRESSIVE PRESERVATION, available at www.denaliguide.us.

More tomorrow.

Monday, July 4, 2011

"The Great Silver Crash of 2011?"

Note that at "Armstrong Economics" site at the dot com of the same name this article was called "The Great Silver Crash of 2015 ?" and so I picked it for analysis but yet it was about 2011.  OK, so I stuck with it, and here is what I am able to take from it, in its simplest form.
1.  The 2011 "Crash" was in like with ".....the usual 11 year high.".  I cannot relate that to any published data.

More he says:  "This has come also on a Pi cycle from the October 2008 low (31.4).".  Again I find it difficult to relate this to any public data.

2.   His estimation of major support he defines as follows: "The primary support to what lies at $23.50 - $26.50 range."  I take that to mean he thinks primary and last ditch support for Silver lies at 23-26.50 and he is using US Dollars as he currency.
     He then says that a MONTHLY closing below that range would signal a "Serious" change in trend for the near term.

3.  Closing BELOW U$D 28.00 on a YEARLY Basis will SIGNAL a decline into 2012.

THEN he offers TWO possible scenario's:
  A/  SCENARIO #1:   We have a spike low on (or about( my idea)) his projected Jun 13/14th bottom, (which was CLOSE but not an exact hit) which would set up an Odds-ON possible scenario for SILVER TO EXCEED ITS PREVIOUS 1980 high, a $54.00 PEAK BY 2013.(Smart guy that he is, he did not say when in 2013).

    Note in this scenario he DID NOT set a peak value on how far up Silver may be able to go, so we are left to guess its potential value, a concept that is very challenging and controversial to say the least.  NOW THIS IS MY INTERPRETATION, and NOT necessarily Martin Amstrong's opinion.  THEREFORE WHEN THIS HAPPENS, A POTENTIAL RANGE SHIFT (upward) can happen.

  B/  SCENARIO #2:  This views the possibility that the low achieved after this past peak, extends out to his next turnpoint,    2013.6.

Martin Armstrong did observe that the harder the come-down from a peak, the shorter the duration it takes to bottom out and resume a trend.

Note that he leaves a question mark at the end of his essay title.  He, as I, is very skeptical of official regulation of markets, and he feels that silver is easily a very heavily manipulated commodity.

Friday, July 1, 2011

Martin Armstrong, Review & Analysis by Denali Guide

To start things off, I publish this because I have started to read and analyze what Martin Armstrong has written with a critical mind.  Over time, I think I find his work usable and readable and want to provide a service by reviewing his work and putting in simple usable form.

I must say I have come to respect his straight forward manner and calls and want to let others read them and encourage to read his works.  We all make calls, good, bad and indifferent, and I am NOT here to judge, but I am here to measure.

I do this because we live in a dangerous, turbulent time, a great time, a wonderful time, not to be filled with fear but with preparedness.  I am extremely happy he was released from custody, and wish him a great life on the rest of  his earth walk.  I thank him for his work, and for his perserverence.  Time will judge it far better than I could ever..........

Denali Guide